Wildfires are among nature’s most powerful and unpredictable forces. They start small—often with a spark—and under the right conditions, can rage out of control, consuming everything in their path. Organizations facing strategic disruption experience a similar pattern. What begins as a flicker of market change, technological innovation, or competitive pressure can escalate quickly, forcing businesses to adapt—or risk being reduced to ashes.
To better understand strategy disruption, I will draw on my past experience as an arson investigator and attempt to dissect the anatomy of a wildfire and compare each stage to what happens when an organization’s strategy is under fire.
🌩️ The Spark: Triggers of Disruption
A wildfire often begins with a single spark—lightning, a discarded cigarette, poorly supervised campfires, or a downed power line. On its own, a spark isn’t necessarily dangerous. But in a dry, fuel-rich environment, that spark becomes a catalyst for chaos.
In business terms, the spark is disruption’s origin. It might be a new competitor, an unforeseen regulatory change, a shift in consumer expectations, or a breakthrough technology. Think of how Netflix’s pivot to streaming sent Blockbuster into a tailspin, or how digital photography upended Kodak’s film empire, even though Kodak’s Steven Sasson invented the world’s first self-contained digital camera in 1975.
Most organizations don’t burn down because of the spark itself—but because they failed to notice it or even worse, failed to take it seriously. Leaders who ignore small signals of disruption—thinking, “It’s not a threat yet”—often allow those sparks to smolder into something unmanageable.
Lesson: Pay attention to anomalies. Small changes in customer behavior, new competitors, or internal inefficiencies might be early warnings of a larger blaze.
🌲 Fuel: The Conditions That Make Organizations Vulnerable
For a wildfire to spread, it needs fuel—dried grass, dead trees, brittle underbrush. The more fuel available, the faster and hotter the fire burns. Similarly, organizational vulnerabilities act as fuel for strategic disruption.
These vulnerabilities include:
- Rigid hierarchies and the red tape of bureaucratic delays
- Siloed departments that don’t communicate or collaborate
- Outdated business models or technologies incapable of supporting the speed, scalability, and adaptability necessary in today’s fluid environments
- Resistance to innovation or cultural complacency that manifests itself when teams begin to believe that past success guarantees future relevance
When disruption hits an organization rich in “strategic dry wood,” it spreads quickly. That’s why legacy firms with long-standing processes and deeply entrenched systems often suffer the most.
Lesson: Audit your strategic landscape. Identify areas of rigidity, inefficiency, or stagnation that could serve as fuel if disruption sparks. Learn more about how to audit your organization
💨 Wind: Accelerants of Chaos
Wind (an excellent abundance of oxygen) is what takes a localized, controllable fire and turns it into a regional catastrophe. It spreads embers across miles, igniting new fires beyond the reach of initial containment efforts.
In the corporate world, wind comes in the form of amplifying forces. These might include:
- Media and public perception
- Social media virality
- Investor reactions and stock market volatility
- Global supply chain interdependencies
Take, for instance, the retail apocalypse. E-commerce didn’t kill brick-and-mortar stores overnight. But social shifts, mobile adoption, and the viral spread of new shopping habits (wind) dramatically accelerated the retail transformation.
Lesson: Monitor external accelerants. A disruption in one area (e.g., supply chain) can cascade through others, igniting fires that might otherwise seem unrelated.
These first three stages comprise what is commonly known as the fire triangle.
In business, disruption follows a similar model to the fire triangle—with three critical components: Market Pressure (Heat), Organizational Vulnerabilities (Fuel), and Enabling Technologies or Ecosystems (Oxygen). On their own, each may seem manageable, but when combined, they create the perfect conditions for strategic upheaval. Remove any one, and disruption can be slowed or even avoided.
However, once these forces ignite, a self-sustaining chain reaction often follows—similar to the fire tetrahedron. This is when disruption becomes embedded, feeding on rapid feedback loops, internal panic, or public perception. At that point, it’s no longer a spark—it’s an out of control blaze that demands deliberate, strategic containment before it consumes the organization.
🔥 Flashover: The Strategic Collapse
In fire science, a flashover is the moment when a room becomes fully engulfed—everything combustible ignites at once. It’s a tipping point. For organizations, this is when strategic disruption overwhelms its existing capabilities.
Suddenly:
- Sales collapse
- Talent walks out
- Stakeholders lose confidence
- Competitors seize market share
- Leadership struggles to communicate or coordinate a response
Organizations in flashover are often forced into reactive decisions: rushed product pivots, mass layoffs, or public apologies. The vision is gone. While the fire seems to be under control, the truth of the matter is they are just trying to survive…and often don’t.
Lesson: Don’t wait for flashover to act. Build early detection systems and invest in scenario planning to prepare for worst-case escalation.
🧯 Firebreaks: Strategic Containment and Response
In wildfire management, a firebreak is a deliberate, controlled burn — a strategic move to eliminate potential fuel for future wildfires. Though it may seem destructive on the surface, it is actually an act of prevention and renewal. Similarly, in the realm of business strategy, organizations sometimes need to create their own strategic firebreaks — intentional resets or disruptions designed to eliminate outdated practices, reduce risk, and make room for new growth.
As we approach the future of strategy, where adaptability and digital integration are crucial, organizations must embrace this mindset. Letting go of legacy systems, inefficient structures, or static planning cycles can be uncomfortable, but often it is the exact move required to thrive in an evolving environment. Just like in nature, controlled disruption can be a catalyst for stronger, more resilient ecosystems.
Effective firebreaks in business include:
- Cross-functional teams capable of rapid response
- Clear crisis communication protocols
- Decentralized decision-making authority
- Agile infrastructure (both technical and organizational)
- Pre-approved contingency strategies
- Embracing AI
For example, during the COVID-19 crisis, companies like Zoom and Amazon had the agility and infrastructure to scale quickly. Their firebreaks—cloud-based architecture, strong digital cultures, and flexible supply chains—allowed them not only to survive but thrive.
Lesson: Plan your firebreaks before the fire starts. Organizational resilience is built in peacetime, not in panic.
🌱 Burn Scar: The Aftermath and Strategic Renewal
After a wildfire, the landscape is forever changed. Burn scars are stark reminders of what once stood. But over time, these areas can regenerate. New growth emerges, ecosystems adapt, and stronger, more fire-resistant environments take root.
Organizations that survive disruption often face a similar transformation. Their people, structures, and strategies may look completely different than before. Some even discover new opportunities in the ashes—new markets, revitalized cultures, leaner operations.
Companies like IBM, Microsoft, and Adobe have all undergone strategic reinvention after facing disruption. Their recoveries weren’t easy, but they emerged more adaptable and forward-thinking.
Lesson: Recovery is usually possible—but it requires letting go of what was lost and intentionally planting what comes next. Tips on planning after a disruption
Be the Firewise Organization
In wildfire-prone regions, communities adopt “Firewise” practices—landscaping choices, evacuation plans, and building codes that minimize risk. These actions don’t stop fires from starting—but they reduce their impact.
A “Firewise” organization understands that disruption is inevitable. It watches for sparks, reduces fuel, prepares firebreaks, and builds a culture of agility. It doesn’t wait for the fire—it plans for it, trains for it, and adapts because of it.
In a world of accelerating change, strategy isn’t a fixed path—it’s a living system of continuous improvement. If you wait until the flames are at your door, it’s already too late. The time to fireproof your strategy is now. Contact us to learn how to get started.
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Terry is Balanced Scorecard Institute's Director of Training and Senior Associate with over 30 years of experience working in both the private and public sectors.